The hottest paper price has risen for three consec

paper prices have risen for three consecutive times. Under the new round of price rise, be alert to the new upstream routine

release date: Source: the three-level Factory Alliance

less than a week after the second round of price rise of paper mills on June 2, a new round of base paper price rise followed. On June 8, Nine Dragons Paper announced that the price of corrugated paper, box board paper and other kinds of paper increased by 50/ton, and the price increase included five production bases in Dongguan, Taicang, Tianjin, Quanzhou and Chongqing

the rise of Nine Dragons once again led the price rise sentiment of the whole market. Many large paper mills such as Guangdong Liwen, Jiangxi Liwen, Changshu Liwen, Chongqing Liwen, Zhejiang Shanying, Liansheng paper also announced an increase of 50/ton

Dongguan Nine Dragons corrugated paper g remained unchanged, and the rest increased by 50/ton; The price of corrugated paper in Dongguan Jianhang paper industry increased by 50/ton

Liansheng paper (Longhai) corrugated paper increased by 50/ton

the corrugated paper price of Tianjin Nine Dragons Paper industry increased by 50/ton

the price of Guangdong Liwen paper corrugated paper increased by 80/ton

the corrugated paper price of Quanzhou Nine Dragons Paper industry increased by 50/ton

Longhai Samsung Paper Co., Ltd. raised the high-strength corrugated paper by 50/ton

the quotation of Taicang Nine Dragons corrugated paper is increased by 50/ton today

...

this round of price increase can be called the most orderly price increase in May, and almost all paper mills have participated; Before the official price rise, relevant information was released in advance on June 5. However, it is reminded that after the baptism of the previous two rounds of base paper and one round of paperboard price increases, a complete "price increase routine" of base paper and paperboard has been formed in the upstream. While paying attention to this round of price increase, it may be more necessary to be vigilant about the updated round of price increase under this routine

why do you say that? We might as well review the context of the previous rounds of "price rises":

1. On May 20 and May 25, Levin and nine dragons led the first wave of price rises

due to the continued downturn in paper prices, both paper mills and secondary mills adopted the strategy of high turnover and low inventory. While the secondary mills judged that the paper price would not fall again and could replenish the stock for 618 in advance, a large number of base paper flowed from the paper mills to secondary mills, resulting in short-term inventory scarcity, and the paper mills rose slightly

2. Analysis of the impact of the first round of price rise

after a large amount of replenishment, the base paper was moved from the paper mill to the secondary plant, and the cash flow of the secondary plant was relatively short after the capital flowed to the paper mill. At this time, if there is no large terminal market, the secondary factory will not, on the other hand, and there is not so much cash to replenish the stock again. The increase of paperboard price by 50/ton will basically be borne by the secondary factory because it has little impact on the price of paperboard

3. The second round of base paper price rise and the first round of paperboard price rise

on June 2, the paper mill carried out a new round of price rise. After two rounds of price rise, Gina Oliver, senior automotive director of the Plastics Department of the American Chemical Council, said, "this has a particularly important impact on the automotive industry, which has exceeded the affordability of secondary plants (about 0..06/square meter) , oppressing the large-scale price rise of secondary factories. Therefore, after June 3, there was a large-scale price rise of secondary factories in East China, South China, southwest and other regions

4. The second round of price rise

from base paper to paperboard, and even some cartons, at this time, the packaging industry experienced the first round of price rise

the direct reason for the price rise of the secondary Paperboard Factory is the cost pressure caused by the rise in the price of base paper, but the basis for the success of the price rise is the stability of downstream orders. For the secondary plant, the price rise at this time not only passed on the cost of raw material price rise, but also took advantage of the price rise to obtain a large number of downstream orders; For the third level factory, the vicious competition caused by long-term low prices and the upstream price rise are conducive to improving its price voice over carton customers

but the so-called "voice" is actually a very empty thing. If the price rise of upstream paper mills and secondary mills stops here, the tertiary mills cannot raise the price of end customers on a large scale (without this confidence). Finally, the pressure of the first two rounds of paper price rise will settle on the tertiary factory group with the weakest bargaining power. To borrow the words of a third-class factory owner, "if the second-class factory rises a wave, we can only make profits to customers."

it is this psychology that provides a "public opinion basis" for the continued rise in the price of base paper

5. Expectations for a new round of price rise

on June 8 (Monday), nine dragons Dongguan, Tianjin, Chongqing, Taicang, Liaoning and other multi base base base paper rose again, thereby driving a new round of nationwide price rises. However, I believe that this round of price rise is likely to be a test and foreshadowing for a new round of price rise

is this wave of price rise serious? It's not serious! The impact of the cost of 50/ton of base paper on the price of downstream paperboard will cost money, but the possible impact of this round of price rise can not be ignored. It is very likely to be the test and foreshadowing of a new round of paperboard price rise. As long as the price of paper rises by 50 again, the price of paperboard will rise

from the above double check, it seems that we can infer that if paper mills and paperboard mills continue to repeat this cycle, will they not be able to continuously push up the price of paper

no

first of all, the terminal demand orders did not explode, but were stable, which could not support the continuous rise of paper prices. In addition, we need to consider imported base paper. The capacity of foreign paper mills is basically to meet their own packaging needs. The number of unplanned base paper outflow is small, and the quality gap is even greater. Due to the epidemic, the reduction of overseas terminal demand led to the outflow of a large number of unplanned shr110a high-speed mixer base paper. Since February, overseas base paper has been flowing into China. Based on the needs of market protection, the price of domestic base paper has also been set a ceiling