The hottest paper price has fallen for half a year

The paper price has fallen for half a year, and the market recovery next year is limited.

from September to Christmas, it was the traditional peak season of the paper industry, but this year's peak season market made Li Manxian, general manager of Dongguan Yili Paper Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Yili paper), unable to understand: the paper price has been falling, and it has been zero gross profit in recent months, so it must be sustained. Li Manxian knew very well that although there had been some losses in recent months, once the production was stopped, the loss of machines and the wages of hundreds of employees would be unbearable

Li Manxian's situation is not alone. Since the second half of the year, the prices of major paper varieties have fallen month on month for six consecutive months, with a monthly average decline of 1%-2%, devouring the already meager profits of paper enterprises, and a large number of enterprises operate at zero gross profit. In the interview, it was found that most paper-making enterprises are facing losses but dare not stop production, hoping to endure until the market recovers next year

paper prices fell for half a year in a row

the paper industry has about 400 employees, mainly producing corrugated paper and face paper, which have not been spared against the background of the overall decline in paper prices. According to Li Manxian, the current price of high-strength corrugated paper is yuan/ton, about 300 yuan/ton lower than the highest price this year; The price of face paper fell to yuan/ton, also 300 yuan/ton lower than before. Compared with last year, the price of high-strength corrugated paper decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the price of corrugated paper also decreased by 300 yuan/ton

not only corrugated paper and face paper, but also the prices of major paper types are in the downward channel. Relevant data show that since the industry entered the off-season in June and July, the prices of double offset paper and white cardboard have fallen slightly month on month for six consecutive months, with an average monthly decline of 1%-2%, but the decline has also narrowed month by month. According to the observation of insiders, the current average price of paper products has decreased by nearly 400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the year. Although there have been signs of recovery in the process of how to choose suitable equipment, it has not been able to curb the downward trend of paper prices. After the Jianhui fire in the first half of the year, the price of whiteboard and other paper products rose briefly, but then fell all the way back. By the end of the year, the price of paper was even lower than before the price rise

household paper is no exception. A person in charge of Shunda paper factory, which mainly produces household base paper, said that at present, the price of paper products has been reduced by 7%-8% compared with the first half of the year. At the same time, due to the sluggish demand, the output has also been reduced by 50% compared with last year

chenshufen, President of Zhongtang Paper Technology Association, analyzed that the traditional peak season of the paper industry is from September to Christmas. Because the paper industry in Dongguan is dominated by packaging paper, it is greatly affected by the cold and warm of downstream industries, especially electronics, toys, clothing, shoes and hats and other industries

in addition, according to insiders, the domestic paper industry increased more production capacity in the first half of the year, and the gradual release of production capacity in the second half of the year also had a certain impact on the price of paper products

the market recovery next year is limited

in the first half of this year, although facing problems such as reduced orders and high inventory, most paper enterprises in Dongguan can still maintain a certain profit. However, the paper price has fallen all the way since June, which has devoured the profits of most enterprises. Li Manxian said frankly that in recent months, the paper industry has been operating with zero gross profit, and zero gross profit means loss

the loss operation cannot last long, and now the hard support of a large number of paper enterprises is based on the optimistic expectation of the paper market in 2013. Chen Shufen believes that after the Spring Festival holiday next year, downstream demand will further recover, so it is expected that March will be a turning point, and the paper industry will begin to pick up in April and may

during the visit, it was found that Dongguan paper enterprises are generally optimistic about the trend of the paper market next year. Li Manxian can also recognize this view by applying key intelligent manufacturing technologies such as IOT, big data and cloud computing, and believes that the market should improve next year

analysts believe that 2012 is the last year of large-scale release of paper production capacity, and the new production capacity in the future will be significantly reduced. Therefore, the market will improve next year. However, the future trend of the new material industry from high-end, customized and environmentally friendly materials is still serious, and 2013 will still be the year of capacity digestion. The recovery of market demand will be a gradual process, which is reflected in the price. The improvement of paper price may not be significant compared with that in 2012